50 shades of GST

After a decade-long struggle, the Goods and Services Tax (GST), which has already been adopted by 160+ countries in some form or the other, sailed over the first of three hurdles when the Rajya Sabha unanimously adopted the Constitution Amendment Bill to facilitate its legislation.

Coming up next is the GST Council, comprising the Finance Minister and nominated State Finance Ministers, which is expectd to be formed in 2 months to deliberate on the specific features of the tax including the final rate structure, exemptions, threshold limits and date of implementation on petroleum products.

Further, the Constitution Amendment Bill also needs to be passed by at least 15 state legislatures (50% of the states) before becoming an Act. Then the Centre and the states will have to pass their GST laws and turn India into a unified market.

So which segments stand to gain and which won’t with the implementation of GST?

CRISIL Research took a look at what this means:

Heralding transparency, reducing the cascading effect of taxes

GST is expected to bring uniformity in taxation and reduce its cascading effect leading to cheaper goods and services. Currently, excise and value-added tax (VAT) cannot be offset, so they cascade. In addition, VAT credits cannot be carried across states. Both these characteristics would change under the GST regime.

A dual-structure is on cards where the Centre would levy and collect the Central Goods and Services Tax (CGST), and states would levy and collect the State Goods and Services Tax (SGST) on all transactions within a state. The states will be able to fix their SGST rates above the floor rate, but within a narrow band.

Input tax credit of CGST would be available for discharging the CGST liability on the output at each stage. Ditto SGST.

No cross-utilisation of credit (across CGST and SGST) would be permitted. The Centre would levy Integrated Goods and Services Tax (IGST) on inter-state supply of goods and services, which might be a combination of CGST and SGST. As for IGST, inter-state sellers can avail of input tax credit.

The proposal for additional tax of up to 1% on the supply of goods to be levied on inter-state trade for 2 years is on its way out, which will reduce its cascading effect and maximise the benefits from GST.

As per the Constitution Amendment Bill, all goods and services (except alcohol for human consumption) will be brought under the GST purview. While petroleum/petroleum products have been included in the framework, GST would be levied only upon the Council’s recommendations, implying that present taxes (excise duty, sales tax, CST) would continue to be levied on these products. For tobacco and tobacco products, taxes imposed by the Centre would be levied over and above the GST.

All major indirect taxes levied by the Centre and the States will be subsumed in the CGST and the SGST

Impact on India Inc:

We have assumed a 12-18-40 rate structure for assessing the impact on various sectors

1. Prices of goods to decline, cost of services to increase, exports to get a boost: The effective indirect tax incidence is expected to decline post the implementation of GST due to removal of the cascading effect arising from the non-availability of input tax credits across the value chain and between states and removal of tax-on-tax (eg. VAT levied on excise inclusive price). The standard excise duty of 12.5% and VAT of 12.5-15% along with cess, entry taxes and CST take the effective tax rate up to 26-30% in the current system which will drop to a standard rate of 17-18% under the GST. However, the prices of goods that are currently exempt from excise duty or sales tax or are subject to concessional rates are set to increase as the list of exemption under the GST will be lowered. Since GST is a tax on consumption (destination-based), exports would be zero-rated, i.e. export prices would not include any taxes. Currently, exports are reimbursed for central indirect taxes (excise and customs duties) but don’t get full offsets for CST and certain state-level taxes such as entry taxes and octroi. Post GST, this non-rebated indirect tax induced distortions would be removed, enhancing competitiveness of Indian exporters. Tax on Services will go up to 18% standard rate from 14% currently.

Based on our analysis below, GST will be largely a beneficiary for Automobiles, Cement, Media and Entertainment sector. GST will have a negative impact on service industries such as restaurants and quick service restaurants (QSR). Impact of GST for hotels will be depend on its location whereas for real estate it will depend on its treatment with regards to agreement value.

2. Better operational efficiency due to improvement in supply chains: Since the GST subsumes most of the state-level taxes, it would reduce the need for reconciliation at state borders. This could lead to a dismantling of the web of check-posts around the country, thereby speeding up the movement of goods and reducing logistics and inventory management costs, which are very high in India vis-à-vis other countries.

CRISIL Research expects the rollout of goods and services tax (GST) to bring down the logistics costs of companies engaged in the production of non-bulk goods by as much as 20%. Savings will accrue as a result of gradual phasing out of the central sales tax (CST), consolidation of warehouse space, faster transit of goods since local taxes will be subsumed into the GST and as state level check posts will be dismantled.

Indian corporate spend an average of 6-8% of sales towards logistics. GST is expected to a costs savings to the tune of 1.0-1.5% of sales over a 3-4 year period. Eliminating delays at check posts will yield additional savings of 0.4-0.8% of sales, which will take the overall logistics costs savings to upto 1.5-2.0% of sales for companies. These cost savings are, however, more likely to be gradual and back ended as corporates will have to realign their supply chain while ensuring minimum business disruption.

Sectors that have set up warehouses due to tax considerations like consumer durables, pharmaceuticals, FMCG, and cement will be key beneficiaries. However sectors like automobiles, which have largely set up warehouses purely for logistical considerations (due to the large stockyard space required), the extent of consolidation will be limited reducing benefits. Sectors dealing with transportation of bulk commodities like iron ore and coal will have limited impact.

3. Narrowing differentials between unorganised and organised players: GST has an in-built incentive of self-policing. Since input tax credit will be available for all taxes paid earlier in the value chain, firms would require evidence of compliance from the preceding links to claim set-offs. Thus, they would prefer sourcing inputs from compliant firms. This could increasingly bring unorganised players under the tax net, thereby reducing their price competitiveness vs. organized players.

Sectoral impact:

Automobiles and Auto Ancillaries – Positive

 Within passenger vehicle industry, mid-size segment (1,200-1,500 cc) will be the largest beneficiary with an estimated duty decline of nearly 20%. Small cars segment could see a price benefit of about 10% and luxury cars & UVs segment to get a limited ~5% benefit.

 Given the intense competitive scenario & players’ struggle to maintain the market share coupled with strong financials of the companies, CRISIL Research expects the players to pass on the tax benefit to end consumers.

‒ In turn, we anticipate a consumer preference to shift towards premium hatchbacks led by this shrinking gap between small cars & mid-size segment.

‒ Moreover, increasing affordability, lower cost of ownership and ample launches in the mid-size segment will support the change in consumer preference as well.

‒ On the top end vehicle front, we do not foresee a significant impact on demand as price does not particularly dictate the purchasing decision for the segments.

 Two wheeler industry will have a similar impact and prices will drop by about 8-10%. This will translate into better demand for price sensitive 100-125 cc segment. 150+ cc vehicles are not estimated have a significant impact.

 Tractors are currently levied a 0% central excise duty and a 4% VAT. Under the new GST regime, central GST will remain 0% and state GST is anticipated to be in the same range as current VAT. So we do not expect much change in the demand scenario for tractors.

 Commercial vehicle, which get subjected to Central Excise (12.5%) and VAT (12.5%), is expected to benefit marginally depending on the RNR adopted.

‒ GST will lead to the hub and spoke model gaining prominence, and a faster shift towards larger MHCV trucks in primary routes - to 37 tonne from 31 tonne and from 25 tonne multi-axel vehicles (MAVs) and 40 tonne trailers from 35 tonne.

‒ The spokes will now be catered largely by ICVs aiding to overall MHCV sales over the long run

‒ However, better fleet productivity will result in lower requirement for commercial vehicles

Auto ancillary industry’s effective tax rate which is currently at 28-30% is expected to come down to 18% upon implementation of GST. However, this benefit will be passed on to OEMs, which will eventually drive expansion in auto demand. It is also expected to improve the price competitiveness of the organised players, especially in products largely sold in the aftermarket segment (eg batteries - where share from after-market is greater than 50%).

Cement - Positive

With GST implementation, we expect the overall tax incidence on the sector to potentially decline. Typically, indirect taxes in the sector are close to 28-30% which would potentially come down post GST implementation to the effective tax rate. Further, the sector will also benefit from expected decline in logistics costs with consolidation of warehouses especially for large players with a pan-India presence. 6

Media & Entertainment - Positive

• Media and Entertainment Multiplex- Positive

Multiplexes would be a key beneficiary of GST. At present, multiplexes pay local state taxes like entertainment tax and VAT on overall revenues including food and beverages. In addition, they also pay service tax on projector equipment, utility, security, housekeeping and other cost which are paid to central government. The blended average rate for multiplex players would be ~24-25% across the country which would reduce to ~18%.

• Media and Entertainment DTH - Positive

DTH players pay service tax of 14.5% and entertainment tax of which varies from various states (in range of 2% to 35%). Their indirect tax outgo is ~23-25% which would reduce to ~18%.

• Media and Entertainment Broadcaster - Negative

Broadcasters pay indirect tax in range of 14-15% which would increase to 18% post implementation of GST.

Retailing – Positive (especially organised retailers)

Rentals which is one of the major costs for retailers attracts service tax of 14.5%. The retailers cannot set-off this costs like the other industries as the companies trading goods (retailers), which pay VAT, are not allowed to claim credit for the service tax paid on different items since they have no central tax against which this can be set off. This creates additional operating expenses for the players. However, passing of GST bill will now allow these indirect taxes (service tax) on lease rental to be set off. This will help in expansion of profitability margin. Further, the bill will also help organised retailers as the single tax will bring majority of transactions of unorganised players under the tax net and thereby reduce the price gap in retail prices of various items.

E-commerce is neutral

Bill is expected to bring some clarity in online business. It will also open new markets for online players who face complexities of entry tax and other processes while entering in specific states.

E-commerce players have large number of sellers listed on their platform. These sellers will have cash-flow issues as they will have to claim refunds for tax paid on inputs , which e-tailers will not be able to account for. Thus, this will increase the compliance burden for e-commerce players. Further, any payment made to a supplier would be subject to tax collected at source at the notified rate. This might create a rift between sellers and e-commerce companies.

Restaurants and QSR - Negative

Restaurants and Quick Service Restaurants (QSR) currently attract Service tax as well as Value Added Tax (VAT). While Service tax is currently charged at 6% (taking into account the abatement rate of 60%, Swacch Bharat Cess and Krishi Kalyan Cess), VAT is charged at 12.5% for food items (including non-aerated, non-alcoholic drinks) and at 25% for aerated drinks. We believe that with the exclusion of aerated drinks, the impact on the restaurants and QSRs will be negative only if the GST rate is higher than 18%. However, with aerated drinks likely to be clubbed under the 'Luxury category' and attract GST at 40%, the impact on this segment will be negative. 7

Textiles - Marginally negative

For the textile sector, a major proportion of sales is derived from exports, which will continue to be zero-rated. Effective tax rate for the textile sector is 6-7%. If it is not classified as goods of basic necessity and the tax rate is increased, it will have a negative impact on the players catering to the domestic segment.

Telecom Services – Marginally Negative

The mobile bills for both prepaid and postpaid subscribers may go up if the rate for GST is set above 15% (the service tax (including KKC and SBC) currently paid for the mobile bills). Also, the way in which telecom circles are classified is not aligned with the geographical boundaries for some of the states and UTs. For e.g., MP telecom circle also includes the state of Chhattisgarh; Delhi circle includes neighboring cities of Noida and Gurgaon which fall in the geographical boundaries of UP and Haryana respectively. If different rates are imposed by such states, the price of a prepaid pack will vary across different regions in a same circle, leading to pricing discrepancies and consumer complaints.

IT Services – Marginally Negative

IT companies at present have a relatively simplified tax regime wherein, there is a single point of taxation which is the central service tax. Under the new GST regime, there is not much clarity on the slab applicable to the IT Companies and compliance might come under Central GST (CGST), State GST (SGST) and Integrated GST (IGST). This could lead to multiple taxation points, which will lead to increased costs for players as invoicing will now cost more. On the hardware front, movement will become smooth. Currently, duty on manufactured goods ranges from 14-15%. A rate less than this would reduce costs for certain hardware components.

Renewable Energy - Negative

 Implementation of GST, assuming 18% rate, will increase solar power project cost by 13-15%

‒ Solar modules, which account for 55-60% of total capital cost, and are largely imported, there exists no customs duty. Also, VAT and other levies like entry tax and excise duty, which together are ~5% currently, will increase to 18%.

However, given strong government thrust to promote renewable energy, the GST Council could exclude / provide a concessional rate renewable energy from the regime.

Impact of GST on real estate will depend upon the abatement allowed on agreement value

From the point of view of consumers, the impact of GST on the real estate sector will hinge on its effective implementation rate.

In the residential segment, completed properties do not attract service tax and so will have no impact of the implementation of GST.

In case of under construction properties, consumers pay the following:

Stamp duty and registration charges (which are state specific and which will not fall under the purview of GST) 8

Service taxes including Swacchh Bharat Cess and Krishi Kalyan Cess totally adding up to 15% (since service tax is applicable on 25% of the agreement value, effective outgo translates to 3.75%. However in case of properties costing above Rs 1 crore or where the carpet area of the residential unit exceeds 2,000 sq ft, service tax will be applicable on 30% of the agreement value, translating to an effective outgo of 4.5%)

 VAT – state-specific charge, for instance Maharashtra charges 1% VAT on agreement value, while Karnataka charges 5.5%, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal do not charge VAT – VAT is expected to be subsumed under GST

Thus, if the current service tax+VAT outgo is higher than the effective GST rate, it will provide some relief to the consumer. In case the current outgo is lower than the effective GST rate, it will further burden the residential real estate sector which is already facing headwinds, especially with regards to demand. A crucial clarification required at the moment, is the treatment of GST in lieu of service tax, namely whether applicable at 25% or at a rate different from 25%. This will have a direct bearing on its overall impact.

Leasing of residential properties does not attract service tax and so will have no impact of the implementation of GST.

On the other hand, leasing of commercial properties attracts service tax and will be impacted by GST. Again, the impact will depend on the effective rate of GST.

From the developer’s point of view, implementation of GST will results in lower construction costs. Overall tax incidence on inputs like cement and steel is expected to decline, thereby leading to improved margins for the developer. However, whether these benefits are passed on to the consumer remains to be seen. Additionally, further clarity is required on the availability of input tax credit with respect to works contract which results in construction of immovable property as it will determine its impact on the sector.

From the point of view on consumers, the Impact of GST on the real estate sector will hinge on its effective implementation rate.

In the residential segment, completed properties do not attract service tax and so will have no impact of the implementation of GST.

In case of under construction properties, consumers pay the following:

 Stamp duty and registration charges (which are state specific and which will not fall under the purview of GST)

 Service taxes including Swacchh Bharat Cess and Krishi Kalyan Cess totally adding up to 15% (since service tax is applicable on 25% of the agreement value, effective outgo translates to 3.75%. However in case of properties costing above Rs 1 crore or where the carpet area of the residential unit exceeds 2,000 sq ft, service tax will be applicable on 30% of the agreement value, translating to an effective outgo of 4.5%)

 VAT – state-specific, for instance Maharashtra charges 1% VAT on agreement value, while Karnataka charges 5.5% VAT, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal do not charge VAT – VAT is expected to be subsumed under GST

Thus, if the current service tax+VAT outgo is higher than the effective GST rate, it will provide some relief to the consumer. In case the current outgo is lower than the effective GST rate, it will further burden the residential real estate sector which is already facing headwinds, especially with regards to demand. 9

Leasing of residential properties does not attract service tax and so will have no impact of the implementation of GST.

On the other hand, leasing of commercial properties attracts service tax and will be impacted by GST. Again, the impact will depend on the effective rate of GST.

Hotels – GST impact will be based on the location

Hotel rooms currently attract Service tax and Luxury tax. While Service tax is levied by the union government and currently stands at 8.7% (taking into account the abatement rate of 40%, Swacch Bharat Cess and Krishi Kalyan Cess), Luxury tax is a state subject. Luxury tax rate currently varies between 5% - 12.5% depending on the state. Therefore, we believe that the impact of GST on hotels will be negative or positive depending on the rate as well as the state in which the property is located. Five star hotels could attract a higher rate of 40% under GST regime, which will be a negative.

Steel - Neutral

With GST implementation, we expect the overall tax incidence on the sector to potentially remain same with a marginally positive impact in states imposing high VAT considering that the steel producing states are not the key consuming centres; thereby attracting high VAT (state-specific).

Typically indirect taxes in the sector are close to 15-18% depending upon whether the sales are within or outside the state. If the GST is levied at 18% the effective tax rate will remain at similar levels and there will be no visible impact on the steel sector (slight positive bias).

Pharmaceuticals - Neutral

GST for pharma companies likely to remain similar to the current effective tax rate of ~12%. However, as the pharma industry receives area based exemption on indirect taxes, any changes in the exemption or re-negotiation of Memorandum of understanding (MoUs) between the government (state, central) and the companies can have a slight negative impact on the sector. GST will enable pharma companies to rationalize their distribution networks through consolidation of depots/warehouses and better inventory management.

Oil and Gas - Neutral

The Oil & Gas Industry would largely be marginally impacted by the introduction of GST; the reason being that 5 petroleum products (ie crude, natural gas, ATF, diesel and petrol) are excluded from the coverage of GST for the initial years while the remaining petroleum products (for eg kerosene, naphtha, LPG, etc) are covered within the coverage of GST. As a result, the industry would be required to comply with both the current tax regime as well as the GST regime. So, overall impact is neutral.

Agri-commodities: Tea, Sugar, Cotton – neutral

Most of the agri-commodities have a concessional rate of tax less than 10%. Being essential commodities, it is unlikely the GST rates will be different from the current concessional rates. 10

Coal and Power - Neutral

End-users of coal are expected to witness an increase in fuel costs with implementation of GST.

Excise duty on coal is levied at 6%, whereas VAT is levied at 5%. Assuming a GST rate of 18%, delivered cost of coal is likely to increase by 5-6% per tonne of coal.

 Consequently, the variable cost of power generation from domestic coal is likely to increase by 6-8 paise per unit. On the other hand, the increase in variable cost from imported coal is estimated to increase by 12 paise per unit.

The increase in fuel costs are not expected to have any impact on the profitability of power generation companies. Central and Stage government projects are based on a ‘cost-plus’ principle, by which their tariffs are determined on the basis of actual cost of fuel. Moreover, as per the National Tariff Policy 2016, even competitively bid projects (private sector) are also allowed to pass-on any increase in costs on account of change in taxes and levies (subject to approval of appropriate Commission). Consequently, we believe that the increase in fuel costs will be passed on the distribution companies by these generators.

The impact of the increase in power purchase costs on retail tariffs will vary on a state-to-state basis, depending upon existing tariff structure and subsidy levels